17
Mr Writer
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 87
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Goodwood | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Catterick | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 08/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |