20
Shaman Champion
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 83
Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f
#17
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Newbury | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1928% of fieldRange 10-20 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 64% | -0.26 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 20/08/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 61% | -0.05 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 54% | +0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |