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18

Startled

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 86

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended 2025 on the up and raised his game again when landing back-to-back handicaps at Newmarket/York this spring. Typically gave his running when 3¼ lengths eighth of 13 at Goodwood last time, but will need to find more as he takes on his elders for the first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 30/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 67 · 5f Std 128 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 67 par30/085OR 675 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f1y Std 127 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 66 · 6f18y Hvy 131 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 66 par23/105OR 662 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 73 · 6f1y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 76 · 7f Gd 131 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 76 par14/044OR 763 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 78 · 7f Gd 118 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR 85 · 7f Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 85 par23/052OR 852 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 7f127y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 87 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 87 · 7f GF 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 87 par1/082OR 87projClass-projected finish: 10th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Goodwood28th7th+1
2026-06-13Chester27th6th+1
2026-05-23Goodwood22nd1st+1
2026-05-13York31st1st0
2026-04-14Newmarket41st2nd−1
2026-02-27Lingfield23rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0827/0223/051/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1944% of fieldRange 9-20 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20253rd7/163%67%+0.04
23/09/20254th11/142%70%+0.28
23/10/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
27/02/20263rd28/10%82%+0.82
14/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
13/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
23/05/20262nd9/276%94%+0.17
13/06/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
01/08/20268th22/10%42%+0.42