IvyArcIvyArc
3

The Fingal Raven

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 93

Newbury · Conundrum Consulting Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally in handicap at Meydan (1m) in January and has worked his way back to form since returning to Britain, having excuses on penultimate outing before runner-up to an unexposed 3-y-o at Ascot (7f) 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Meydan 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 7f Gd 1309/01C?C0 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 1m Gd 137C0 @ Meydan 13/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 7f Gd 13113/02C?C0 @ Meydan 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 1m Gd 1262 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 28 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 95 par18/062OR 952 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 95 · 7f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 95 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 93 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 93 par29/073OR 932 @ Goodwood 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 93 · 7f GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Ascot 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 7f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 par5/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 7th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Ascot22nd1st+1
2026-08-29Goodwood29th8th+1
2026-07-29Goodwood33rd3rd0
2026-07-11Newmarket29th8th+1
2026-06-18Royal Ascot216th15th+1
2026-03-13Meydan?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0113/0329/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1989% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/20264th5/174%80%+0.06
30/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
13/02/20265th10/147%69%+0.22
13/03/20265th7/163%69%+0.06
18/06/202616th66/10%44%+0.44
11/07/20269th28/10%33%+0.33
29/07/20263rd16/116%89%+0.74
29/08/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
05/09/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70