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Abundant

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 85

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been running well in handicaps this season, before finding some progress taking on his elders for the first time when scoring over this C&D last month. Yet to run a bad race so he's not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 1335/0945 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 1335 @ Southwell 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m13y Std 13324/1054 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m31y Goo 133 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m Goo 128 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 78 par19/064OR 783 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 80 · 7f213y GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR 80 · 1m Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 80 par30/073OR 804 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 1m GF 131 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 80 par26/084OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury41st1st0
2026-07-30Goodwood35th4th+1
2026-07-10Ascot33rd2nd+1
2026-06-19Goodwood43rd3rd0
2026-05-11Windsor44th4th0
2025-10-24Southwell51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0911/0530/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20252nd14/126%92%+0.65
09/10/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
24/10/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
11/05/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
19/06/20263rd11/271%78%+0.07
10/07/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22
30/07/20265th14/126%78%+0.51
26/08/20261st7/491%100%+0.09