Aqua Bear
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 77
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 17th | 16th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Newmarket | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Goodwood | 2 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/05/2026 | 16th | 12/1 | 37% | 6% | -0.31 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/07/2026 | 17th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |