Astrazar
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 84
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 2 | 14th | 12th | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 21/08/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |