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9

Aura Champagne

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 76

Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise when third in a pair of novices at this course on first 2 starts. No match for the odds-on winner at Windsor (1¼m) 12 days ago, but she could still have more to offer as she goes handicapping back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS19/0922 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m2f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0724 @ Nottingham 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 1283/0843 @ Windsor 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 1m2f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 77 par7/093OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Windsor32nd1st+1
2026-08-03Nottingham43rd3rd0
2026-07-18Newbury23rd1st+2
2025-09-19Newbury23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0918/073/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20253rd17/255%67%+0.11
18/07/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08
03/08/20263rd11/893%50%-0.43
07/09/20262nd11/142%83%+0.41