6
Back To Me
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 82
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Newmarket | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 18th | 16th | +2 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Dundalk | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 13/06/2026 | 18th | 40/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |