10
Starlight Sami
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Newbury | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 10/12/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 23/06/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 18% | -0.64 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 33% | -0.22 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |