3
Starlight Time
3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 84
Newbury · Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str) · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Lingfield | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ascot | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 72% | +0.19 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |