Muddy Marvellous

6yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 47

Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#13

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 5

Recent avg: C5.3

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-16	Southwell	6	8th	8th	0	2.0
2025-12-02	Newcastle	5	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2025-10-24	Southwell	6	10th	10th	0	1.0
2023-11-14	Newcastle	5	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2023-11-07	Newcastle	5	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2023-10-31	Newcastle	5	9th	8th	+1	2.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength50%

Delivery trend +9.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/10/2023	9th	200/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/11/2023	4th	150/1	0%	0%	0.00
14/11/2023	8th	250/1	0%	0%	0.00
24/10/2025	10th	150/1	0%	10%	+0.10
02/12/2025	5th	200/1	0%	43%	+0.43
16/08/2026	8th	125/1	0%	42%	+0.42