New Objective

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 55

Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#8

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 5

Recent avg: C5.5

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-02	Newcastle	6	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-16	Doncaster	6	9th	9th	0	1.0
2025-12-12	Southwell	6	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-10-30	Chelmsford City	5	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2025-10-07	Brighton	5	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-09-20	Wolverhampton	5	6th	5th	+1	5.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▬

Strength61%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/09/2025	6th	16/1	16%	55%	+0.39
07/10/2025	9th	11/1	42%	33%	-0.09
30/10/2025	10th	66/1	0%	10%	+0.10
12/12/2025	3rd	5/1	74%	75%	+0.01
16/05/2026	9th	40/1	0%	38%	+0.38
02/09/2026	4th	17/2	55%	73%	+0.17