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12

Parole Officer

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 52

Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed 4 times for Sean Woods last year. Best form for current yard has come over C&D, not seen to best effect when beaten 3½ lengths in 3-y-o handicap here latest. Wouldn't want this to be run at a crawl, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 71 · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 71 par5/094OR 715 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 69 · 7f3y GS 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 14/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 67 · 7f1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 67 par14/105OR 676 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 63 · 1m2y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 63 par12/045OR 635 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m68y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m2f Gd 128 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 58 par6/076OR 586 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m2f Goo 124 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m2f42y Std 133 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle65th5th0
2026-08-10Ayr66th6th0
2026-07-06Ayr611th11th0
2026-05-15Hamilton59th8th+1
2026-04-12Musselburgh59th8th+1
2025-11-17Newcastle64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0917/116/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength46%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20253rd11/486%83%-0.02
16/09/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
14/10/20255th9/276%69%-0.07
17/11/20254th16/116%50%+0.34
12/04/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
15/05/20269th40/10%0%0.00
06/07/202611th100/10%9%+0.09
10/08/20266th66/10%55%+0.55
02/09/20265th13/266%64%-0.02