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Ravenscraig Castle

8yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55

Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win on the Flat since 2021. Did run one of his better races of the year when 4¾-length second over C&D last time. This looks a deeper 0-55, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 63 · 7f14y Std 133 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 63 par12/036OR 632 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 108 · 2m1f87y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 108 par3 @ Ayr 17/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 108 · 2m Sft 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 108 par17/043OR 1086 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m3f39y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 61 par4 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 106 · 2m47y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 106 par7/064OR 1064 @ Perth 02/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 105 · 2m47y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 105 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 58 par27/076OR 586 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m2f Goo 134 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 55 · 1m2f43y Std 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 55 par2/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-10Ayr69th9th0
2026-07-27Ayr64th4th0
2026-07-02Perth42nd0th+2
2026-06-07Perth43rd1st+2
2026-05-29Carlisle65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0329/0527/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
20/03/20264th14/126%77%+0.51
17/04/20269th25/10%43%+0.43
29/05/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
07/06/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
02/07/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
27/07/20264th8/158%63%+0.05
10/08/20269th14/126%27%+0.01
02/09/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10