11
Suitcase Smith
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 47
Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/10/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/05/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 11/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |