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4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 49
Newcastle · quinnbet.com Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 6/5 | 94% | 45% | -0.48 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 09/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 92% | +0.08 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 58% | -0.30 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 77% | -0.07 |