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3

Fairydale

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 52

Newcastle · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who has been placed twice in similar company at Catterick this summer, latterly benefiting from the run of the race when beaten 1½ lengths in a change of headgear there last time. Claims on her all-weather bow, especially as there's not much pace on paper here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 17/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m100y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2025 · OR 66 par17/095OR 665 @ Ripon 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 61 · 1m2f1y GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 61 par30/045OR 615 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 58 · 1m5f218y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m6f Sft 127 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 55 par11/066OR 556 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m4f10y Goo 127 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 50 · 1m4f13y GF 133 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 50 par22/076OR 506 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m4f15y Goo 126 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f192y Goo 126 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 52 par26/086OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-08-11Hamilton67th7th0
2026-07-22Catterick62nd2nd0
2026-07-06Ripon64th4th0
2026-06-11Nottingham68th8th0
2026-05-26Redcar53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0926/0522/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20255th17/255%33%-0.22
27/09/20255th33/10%33%+0.33
30/04/20266th28/10%0%0.00
26/05/20263rd28/10%0%0.00
11/06/20268th20/10%0%0.00
06/07/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
22/07/20262nd8/158%83%+0.25
11/08/20267th7/282%14%-0.67
26/08/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24