7
Galistra
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 47
Newcastle · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#10
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 3 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 13% | -0.79 |
| 11/03/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 08/08/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |