Gilleangirl
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 52
Newcastle · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |