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5

Manbearpig

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48

Newcastle · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 4f 98y

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't troubled the judge in 8 starts to date. Back in blinkers following another slow start at Catterick last time and handicapper has at least offered some respite.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS26/1155 @ Wolverhampton 06/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Newcastle 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 1m5y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS13/1255 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m4f8y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m4f14y Std 134 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 59 par18/066OR 596 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m2f Gd 128 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 52 · 1m6f115y GF 124 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 52 par15/086OR 526 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 50 · 1m5f192y Goo 124 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 50 par26/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Catterick68th8th0
2026-08-15Doncaster64th4th0
2026-07-05Ayr68th8th0
2026-06-18Southwell64th4th0
2026-05-16Thirsk55th4th+1
2025-12-13Newcastle55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1116/0515/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
06/12/20255th80/10%33%+0.33
13/12/20255th66/10%20%+0.20
16/05/20265th40/10%60%+0.60
18/06/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
05/07/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
15/08/20264th22/10%50%+0.50
26/08/20268th20/10%0%0.00