8
Project Kinsman
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 45
Newcastle · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap · 1m 4f 98y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Catterick | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 71% | +0.29 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 42% | -0.32 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |