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6

Dawn's Gift

2yo Filly · 8-13

Newcastle · QuinnBet Extra Place EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cheap purchase for one that's half-sister to a smart sprinting juvenile. Modest debut when beaten 7½ lengths at Doncaster (6f). Couldn't even match that form dropped in trip under contrasting conditions at Beverley (heavy) subsequently.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f111y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0844 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 5f Hvy 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/084projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley410th9th+1
2026-08-01Doncaster46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -66.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20266th66/10%55%+0.55
30/08/202610th12/137%25%-0.12