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4

Tradittion

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 69

Newcastle · QuinnBet Extra Place EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Steadily progressive in 4 runs to date. Seemed suited by the drop in trip when 1-length second of 13 at Carlisle (6f) latest, though again wandered under pressure despite the fitting of blinkers. Claims if taking another step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 22/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f6y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS22/0743 @ Haydock 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f212y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS7/0834 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 7f75y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/0844 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 62 · 5f182y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 62 par9/094OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle42nd1st+1
2026-08-29Beverley44th3rd+1
2026-08-07Haydock36th4th+2
2026-07-22Catterick47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/077/0829/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20267th18/15%33%+0.28
07/08/20266th150/10%38%+0.38
29/08/20264th40/10%75%+0.75
09/09/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65