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6

American Bay

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72

Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win so far this year but placed on 3 occasions, the latest when runner-up at Redcar in June. Had excuses when well held at Haydock 15 days ago, denied a clear run, so he's not ruled out from below his last winning mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f21y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 77 par9/034OR 774 @ Wolverhampton 24/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 5f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/03/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 78 par2/053OR 784 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 5f Gd 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 76 par20/063OR 764 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 76 · 5f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 76 par1/084OR 765 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 74 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 72 · 5f Hvy 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 72 par4/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock49th8th+1
2026-08-13Beverley57th7th0
2026-08-01Thirsk45th4th+1
2026-07-11York413th12th+1
2026-06-20Redcar32nd0th+2
2026-05-31Thirsk47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0331/051/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
24/03/20262nd2/189%80%-0.09
02/05/20265th12/137%56%+0.19
31/05/20267th12/137%63%+0.26
20/06/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
11/07/202613th17/255%33%-0.22
01/08/20265th10/382%64%-0.19
13/08/20267th7/491%33%-0.57
04/09/20269th11/271%20%-0.51