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Azuinthejungle

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75

Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enthusiastic sort who completed a hat-trick last summer and repeated the feat with success in 6-runner handicap at Thirsk last month. Wasn't discredited in his bid for the 4-timer when 2¼ lengths sixth of 13 over this C&D on latest outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength60%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 71 · 5f7y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 71 par17/053OR 715 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 66 par16/065OR 665 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Sta 126 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 66 par6 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 5f7y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 64 par11/076OR 646 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 141 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 139 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 67 par28/075OR 675 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 67 · 5f Goo 134 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 76 · 5f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 76 par20/084OR 76projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Newcastle46th5th+1
2026-08-07Thirsk51st1st0
2026-07-28Beverley51st1st0
2026-07-13Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-07-11Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-06-26Newcastle53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0526/0628/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/202612th25/10%8%+0.08
03/06/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
16/06/20267th3/184%25%-0.59
26/06/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
11/07/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
13/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
28/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
07/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
20/08/20266th7/163%58%-0.05