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10

Blue Force

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 65

Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

After 3 months off, bounced back to winning ways at Wolverhampton (6f) in August. Ran creditably after a slow start when fourth of 9 at the same course (5f) 12 days ago, so he could be in the mix from what remains a workable mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 23/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 5f21y Std 130 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 69 par23/015OR 695 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 130 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 67 par20/025OR 675 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Std 126 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 65 par4/045OR 655 @ Newcastle 13/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 64 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Wolverhampton 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 63 · 5f21y Std 123 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 63 par29/055OR 635 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 6f20y Std 127 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 66 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 66 par7/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-08-17Wolverhampton51st1st0
2026-05-29Wolverhampton59th9th0
2026-04-13Newcastle56th6th0
2026-04-04Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-03-05Newcastle56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/015/0329/057/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
06/02/20268th22/10%30%+0.30
20/02/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
05/03/20266th14/126%55%+0.28
04/04/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
13/04/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
29/05/20269th28/10%11%+0.11
17/08/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
07/09/20264th15/890%63%-0.28