Bonnie's Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71
Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Newcastle | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 06/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |