Castan
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 72
Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 2 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 20/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 42% | -0.16 |