IvyArcIvyArc
4

Goyard

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice at Ripon last summer and made an encouraging return when third in handicap at Pontefract in June. Hasn't gone on from that effort since, though, tried in tongue strap when down the field at Ripon (6f) last time. Makes all-weather debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength36%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ripon 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f Sft 13319/0755 @ Ripon 04/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f Gd 1374 @ Newmarket 20/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 85 · 6f Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 85 par20/094OR 854 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 84 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 82 · 5f3y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 82 par21/064OR 824 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 81 · 6f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 81 par26/074OR 814 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 79 · 5f8y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Sft 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 77 par1/094OR 77projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Ripon47th6th+1
2026-08-11Nottingham45th4th+1
2026-07-26Pontefract44th3rd+1
2026-07-06Ripon48th7th+1
2026-06-21Pontefract43rd2nd+1
2025-10-04Redcar45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/074/1026/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/07/20251st30/10098%100%+0.02
04/08/20251st1/398%100%+0.02
20/09/20258th17/255%22%-0.33
04/10/20255th15/261%56%-0.05
21/06/20263rd15/261%75%+0.14
06/07/20268th3/184%13%-0.72
26/07/20264th4/179%0%-0.79
11/08/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
01/09/20267th11/142%14%-0.28