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Hundred Caps

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Newcastle · Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Added to his tally at Southwell (6f) in January and ran well when second next 2 outings, including at this course. Respectable efforts over 5f on turf the last twice, third of 11 at Hamilton 7 weeks ago, and he could go well back on all-weather following a breathing operation.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 5f Std 133 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 73 par9/105OR 734 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 73 · 6f16y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 78 · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 78 par6/024OR 784 @ Kempton 04/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 79 · 6f Sta 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f16y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 80 par2/044OR 804 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 80 · 5f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 79 par9/064OR 794 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 77 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 5f7y Gd 135 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 75 par1/085OR 75projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Hamilton53rd3rd0
2026-07-03Beverley44th3rd+1
2026-06-09Carlisle47th6th+1
2026-05-04Beverley45th4th+1
2026-04-02Southwell45th4th+1
2026-03-04Kempton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/104/039/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20252nd13/266%88%+0.22
20/01/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
06/02/20262nd10/382%91%+0.08
04/03/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
02/04/20265th7/491%56%-0.35
04/05/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
09/06/20267th9/153%40%-0.13
03/07/20264th8/158%57%-0.01
01/08/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06