IvyArcIvyArc
4

Asadjumeirah

8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Arrives at the top of his game, registering his seventh C&D success in 7-runner event 16 days ago, driven clear. There's nothing in his current record to suggest he's much better than that, though, so may struggle to defy a 6 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 53 · 6f Std 123 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 53 par12/036OR 536 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 52 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 130 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 50 par20/046OR 505 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 50 · 6f Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 48 par16/056OR 486 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 46 · 6f2y GF 122 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 44 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 44 par31/076OR 446 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 52 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 52 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 52 par3/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-20Newcastle66th6th0
2026-07-31Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-06Doncaster69th9th0
2026-05-16Thirsk66th6th0
2026-05-01Newcastle58th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/031/0531/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
21/03/20264th5/174%57%-0.17
20/04/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
01/05/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
16/05/20266th12/137%69%+0.32
06/06/20269th28/10%47%+0.47
31/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
20/08/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
03/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12