Donald
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 61
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ayr | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |