Lord Abama
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 50
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 18/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.00 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |