5

Men Of Honour

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made a bit more impact than of late from his reduced mark when seventh of 13 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, good to soft) 17 days ago. Eased a further 2 lb ahead of first tapeta start.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 72 · 7f Goo 134 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 72 par2/09C8OR 72C8 @ Navan 08/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 72 · 5f180y Yie 134 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 72 parBHA71 @ Gowran Park 20/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 71 · 7f Hvy 141 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 71 par20/1071OR 714 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 72 · 6f2y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 70 par3/065OR 705 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 67 · 6f2y GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 65 par1/075OR 655 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 62 · 5f217y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 60 · 6f6y Sft 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 par2/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton67th7th0
2026-08-22Redcar55th4th+1
2026-07-01Thirsk59th8th+1
2026-06-20Doncaster56th5th+1
2026-06-03Ripon59th8th+1
2026-05-16Doncaster49th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0916/051/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength46%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/20256th12/137%67%+0.30
08/10/20256th8/158%55%-0.03
20/10/20254th6/168%80%+0.12
16/05/20269th12/137%27%-0.10
03/06/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
20/06/20266th28/10%38%+0.38
01/07/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
22/08/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
02/09/20267th12/137%50%+0.13