3
Operation Gimcrack
6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-24 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 31% | -0.53 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/01/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 10/04/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.40 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 90% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |