7
Territorial Star
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 54
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Haydock | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-24 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 17/10/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 26/05/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |