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7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 48

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has made a good start for current yard, going close back in handicap company in 8-runner C&D handicap 16 days ago. Likely to continue in form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 50 par19/026OR 506 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 51 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 51 · 6f Std 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 51 par27/035OR 516 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 51 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 50 par7/056OR 506 @ Ripon 28/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 48 · 6f Sta 128 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 48 par26/066OR 486 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 47 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 47 par3/096OR 47projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-07Thirsk64th4th0
2026-06-26Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-05-28Ripon65th5th0
2026-05-07Southwell65th5th0
2026-04-20Redcar66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0220/0426/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
11/03/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
27/03/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
20/04/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
07/05/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
28/05/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
26/06/20262nd5/174%92%+0.18
07/08/20264th7/282%63%-0.19
03/09/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07