Too Much
6yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 60
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 20/07/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 20/04/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |