Glowchester
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 60
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-09-30 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-09-10 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-08-05 | Ripon | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-07-23 | Musselburgh | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 05/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 10/09/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 30/09/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 19/10/2024 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |