Heathers Feather
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 52
Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 300/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 22% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |