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7

Maui Breeze

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 51

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a first handicap success and was already on the retreat when suffering interference at Catterick (7f, good) 11 days ago. Tongue strap on for 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 68 par29/125OR 685 @ Newcastle 10/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m2f42y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 67 par20/015OR 676 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m5y Std 140 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f50y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 62 par20/055OR 626 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 60 · 7f213y Goo 135 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 60 par21/066OR 605 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 57 · 5f182y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 53 · 7f6y Goo 128 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 53 par8/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick611th11th0
2026-07-04Carlisle59th8th+1
2026-06-21Pontefract65th5th0
2026-06-14Doncaster616th16th0
2026-05-20Ayr57th6th+1
2026-02-04Newcastle67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/124/0221/068/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20252nd80/10%91%+0.91
10/01/20269th14/126%20%-0.06
20/01/202611th50/10%0%0.00
04/02/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
20/05/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
14/06/202616th25/10%12%+0.12
21/06/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
04/07/20269th18/15%0%-0.05
08/09/202611th25/10%0%0.00