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Melissa Honey

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 58

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Added to a good season when game winner of 6-runner handicap at Nottingham (6f, good to firm, 5/1) 39 days ago. Ought to remain competitive following a token rise in the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 56 par7/115OR 566 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 6f16y Std 124 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 6f16y Std 127 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 52 par28/046OR 526 @ Leicester 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 51 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 50 · 6f2y GF 126 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 50 par6/066OR 506 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 53 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 54 · 6f GF 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 54 par4/076OR 546 @ Leicester 29/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 56 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 6f18y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 56 par11/085OR 56projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-11Nottingham51st0th+1
2026-07-29Leicester63rd3rd0
2026-07-04Leicester61st1st0
2026-06-21Pontefract62nd2nd0
2026-06-06Doncaster61st1st0
2026-05-25Leicester63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1125/054/0711/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20258th28/10%22%+0.22
05/04/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
28/04/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
25/05/20263rd6/168%80%+0.12
06/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
21/06/20262nd7/491%90%-0.01
04/07/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
29/07/20263rd8/1196%33%-0.63
11/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26