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10

Runninman

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 45

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Poor maiden who was too free when last of 11 in 6f handicap at Carlisle (good to soft, 50/1) 10 days ago. Others more appealing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 52 par22/016OR 526 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 52 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 51 · 6f20y Std 131 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 51 par27/026OR 516 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 49 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 49 · 7f14y Std 129 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 49 par19/036OR 496 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 47 · 6f Sta 130 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f195y Goo 119 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 45 par19/086OR 456 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 45 · 7f6y Goo 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 5f182y Goo 119 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 45 par9/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle611th11th0
2026-08-26Catterick65th5th0
2026-08-19Carlisle66th6th0
2026-07-31Newcastle612th12th0
2026-03-19Newcastle64th4th0
2026-03-11Newcastle67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0111/0319/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/01/20263rd7/491%67%-0.24
10/02/20266th7/282%55%-0.27
27/02/20268th4/179%30%-0.49
11/03/20267th10/147%33%-0.14
19/03/20264th7/163%67%+0.04
31/07/202612th25/10%8%+0.08
19/08/20266th40/10%44%+0.44
26/08/20265th66/10%67%+0.67
09/09/202611th50/10%0%0.00