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3

Surgeon Commander

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 60

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enhanced excellent record at this track when gaining third win (all 7f) in June and shaped as if better for the run at Southwell 3 months on. Likely to take a step forward here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 19/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 55 par19/126OR 556 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 12/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 127 · below its mark12/01/2026 · OR 56 par12/016OR 566 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Newcastle 31/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 58 par31/016OR 586 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f110y Goo 133 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 57 · 7f6y Goo 127 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 57 par14/066OR 576 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 57 · 7f14y Sta 127 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 60 par31/086OR 60projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell66th6th0
2026-06-25Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-14Doncaster64th4th0
2026-06-04Wetherby66th6th0
2026-01-31Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-01-22Newcastle61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1222/0114/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20256th3/184%17%-0.68
20/12/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
12/01/20267th5/174%14%-0.59
22/01/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
31/01/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03
04/06/20266th12/137%29%-0.08
14/06/20264th28/10%79%+0.79
25/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
31/08/20266th4/179%55%-0.24