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9

Yaahobby

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 45

Newcastle · Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Newcastle regular who's on a long losing run but probably needed the run after 6 months off when ninth of 13 here 16 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 47 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 47 par20/116OR 476 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 46 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 45 par1/016OR 456 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 45 par4/026OR 456 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark19/02/2026 · OR 45 par19/026OR 456 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par3/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle69th9th0
2026-03-06Newcastle64th4th0
2026-02-19Newcastle66th6th0
2026-02-10Newcastle66th6th0
2026-02-04Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-01-20Newcastle67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1120/0119/023/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20259th22/10%33%+0.33
16/12/20254th18/15%77%+0.72
01/01/20262nd7/163%89%+0.26
20/01/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
04/02/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
10/02/20266th5/174%44%-0.29
19/02/20266th6/168%38%-0.31
06/03/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
03/09/20269th12/137%33%-0.04