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3

Crafty Spirit

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54

Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed back-to-back handicaps at Wetherby (5.5f) and Beverley (5f) this summer. Posted a good third back up in grade at latter track in late July but struggled to land a blow following another tardy start at Carlisle on most recent outing. Visor refitted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Redcar 30/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 5f217y Goo 133 · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 53 par30/076OR 536 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 50 · 5f Gd 130 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Redcar 16/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 48 par16/096OR 486 @ Catterick 01/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 46 · 5f212y Sft 127 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 45 par27/056OR 456 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 5f110y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 128 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 48 par14/076OR 485 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Carlisle 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 54 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 54 par27/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Carlisle68th8th0
2026-07-28Beverley53rd2nd+1
2026-07-14Beverley61st1st0
2026-06-15Wetherby61st1st0
2026-05-27Beverley62nd2nd0
2025-10-01Catterick67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/071/1014/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -8.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20259th25/10%27%+0.27
01/09/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
16/09/20256th80/10%58%+0.58
01/10/20257th28/10%25%+0.25
27/05/20262nd40/10%88%+0.88
15/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
14/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
28/07/20263rd9/488%75%-0.13
27/08/20268th13/266%30%-0.36