7
Ellie's De Vega
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 52
Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Redcar | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |