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Solid Bond

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 58

Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been given 12 weeks off since a bleeding episode at Southwell and bounced back to form to get off the mark at the eleventh time of asking in 12-runner handicap at Carlisle (5f, good to soft) 10 days ago, always holding on. Task is now to build on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 10/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS10/0654 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 71 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f1y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 68 par14/095OR 685 @ Redcar 24/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 68 par6 @ Pontefract 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 64 · 5f3y Sft 134 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 64 par6/106OR 646 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 61 · 5f217y Goo 133 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 61 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 59 · 5f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 59 par5/065OR 595 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 56 · 4f214y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 55 · 5f Goo 131 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 55 par9/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle61st1st0
2026-06-18Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-06-05Thirsk58th7th+1
2025-10-27Redcar611th11th0
2025-10-06Pontefract67th7th0
2025-09-24Redcar510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0624/095/069/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/06/20253rd12/137%78%+0.41
05/09/20259th28/10%38%+0.38
14/09/20255th14/126%50%+0.24
24/09/202510th10/147%0%-0.47
06/10/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
27/10/202511th28/10%17%+0.17
05/06/20268th11/142%30%-0.12
18/06/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
09/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47