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9

South Shore Island

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 47

Newcastle · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who again wasn't disgraced in a first-time tongue strap when fifth of 16 in handicap at Redcar (6f, good) 28 days ago. Makes tapeta debut and likely to remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 25/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 52 · 5f6y Std 127 · beat its mark25/11/2025 · OR 52 par25/116OR 526 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 5f6y Std 127 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Lingfield 15/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 52 · 5f6y Std 132 · beat its mark15/12/2025 · OR 52 par15/126OR 525 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f1y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/12/2025 · OR 50 par6 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 48 · 5f110y Goo 128 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 48 par4/066OR 486 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 6f18y Sft 135 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 47 · 5f217y Goo 129 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 47 par29/076OR 476 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 49 · 5f7y Goo 124 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 48 · 5f217y Goo 128 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 48 par22/086OR 48projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Redcar65th5th0
2026-08-11Hamilton64th4th0
2026-07-29Redcar62nd2nd0
2026-06-11Nottingham64th4th0
2026-06-04Wetherby63rd3rd0
2025-12-31Lingfield55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1131/1229/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/11/20252nd9/276%89%+0.13
02/12/20255th11/271%43%-0.28
15/12/20257th4/179%33%-0.46
31/12/20255th25/10%43%+0.43
04/06/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01
11/06/20264th11/486%63%-0.23
29/07/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
11/08/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
22/08/20265th12/137%73%+0.36